It is not even spring yet but 2009 is already being termed a recession year. The global financial crisis hit the real economy everywhere and stimulus packages are frantically being thrown together. The pressure for change is rising on the “construction sites” of globalisation. Thus 2009 is also representing a window of opportunity: the consequences drawn from the global financial crisis and the course set this year can decisively shape the face of global governance for the foreseeable future. An overview by Rainer Falk and Barbara Unmüßig
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The global economic development trend is clearly pointed downward, and there is almost no difference any more between the forecasts of the relevant institutions (see notes). Whereas the UN Global Outlook forecasts only 1% of global growth in 2009 (compared to 3.8% in 2007), the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects forecasts only 0.9% (compared to 3.7% in 2007). Growth in the developing countries ought to decline in 2009 to an average of 4.6% (2007: 7.1% according to the UN) resp. 4.5% (2007: 7.9% according to the World Bank), whereby these figures reflect the moderate scenario. The IMF is even more pessimistic ... ... this article comes up in WDEV 1/Jan-Feb 2009 and is for subscribers only. For direct log in >>> click here.If you have no subscription >>> pick your option or >>>
After decades of isolation - imposed by major OECD countries out of concern for the country's human rights violations - Myanmar is emerging as a new darling of the "West" - judging by the accelerating succession of visits by senior officials and gurus. New groups of investors are waiting to enter the country as soon as possible.
Persistent high unemployment, the euro area debt crisis and premature fiscal austerity have already slowed global growth and factor into the possibility of a new recession. Now the United Nations have downgraded significantly its forecasts for the world economy in the next year.
Eastern European states are in for a new round of the crisis. The external control of the banking sector and high reliance on external credit has landed the countries of Eastern Europe in a vulnerable position. Now, credit flows from Western banks are drying up again. Hungary has been the first country in the region to ask for IMF support again.
While the G20 efforts to manage global aggregate demand, exchange rate management and stronger regulation of the international financial sector have not worked out quite as planned, in Cannes the Group was further solidifying its role in directing the system of multilateral institutions.
In November 2011, the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) is celebrating its 50th anniversary.The new Minister, Dirk Niebel of the (neo)-liberal FDP has launched a 'radical change of course'. In the recent edition of the Reality of Aid shadow report the change is analyzed.